The race for the 2025 Ballon d’Or is heating up, with Ousmane Dembélé emerging as the frontrunner after leading Paris Saint-Germain to their first-ever Champions League title. However, teenage sensation Lamine Yamal remains a strong challenger, while Mohamed Salah and Raphinha lurk as potential dark horses.
In this comprehensive betting guide, we break down:
✔ Latest odds (American & decimal)
✔ Top contenders & their cases
✔ Key factors influencing the vote
✔ Smart betting strategies
Current Ballon d’Or 2025 Odds (June 2025)
| Player | Club | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | PSG | -138 | 1.72 | 58.1% |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | +100 | 2.00 | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | +2500 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Raphinha | Barcelona | +3300 | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | PSG | +4000 | 41.00 | 2.4% |
(Odds via Paddy Power, Bet365, and Polymarket as of June 8, 2025)
Key Takeaways:
- Dembélé (-138) is the strong favorite after winning the Champions League and Ligue 1 Player of the Season.
- Yamal (+100) remains in contention after a record-breaking season with Barcelona, including 18 goals and 25 assists.
- Salah (+2500) drifted after Liverpool’s early Champions League exit, despite winning the Premier League Golden Boot.
- Raphinha (+3300) was once the favorite but lost momentum after Barcelona’s UCL semifinal defeat.
Top Contenders: Who Could Win?
1. Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) – -138
Why He’s Favored:
- Champions League winner (2 assists in the final).
- 33 goals, 15 assists across all competitions.
- Ligue 1 Player of the Season (21 goals in 29 games).
Weaknesses:
- Faces competition from PSG teammates (Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha) splitting votes.
- Less dominant in big games compared to Yamal.
2. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) – +100
Why He’s a Threat:
- La Liga & Copa del Rey double with Barcelona.
- 18 goals, 25 assists—unprecedented for a 17-year-old.
- Nations League heroics (2 goals vs. France).
Weaknesses:
- No Champions League success (lost in semis).
- Voters may favor older, established stars.
3. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) – +2500
Longshot Appeal:
- Premier League Golden Boot (29 goals).
- 47 goal contributions—a record in a 38-game season.
- Could benefit if Dembélé/Yamal underperform in late 2025.
Key Factors Influencing the Vote
1. Champions League Performance
- Historically, UCL winners dominate Ballon d’Or voting (e.g., Rodri in 2024).
- Dembélé’s UCL final impact gives him an edge.
2. International Tournaments (Nations League)
- Yamal’s Nations League heroics could sway voters.
- If Spain wins, his odds may shorten further.
3. Club World Cup (July 2025)
- A strong Club World Cup could revive Mbappe’s chances (currently +4000).
How to Bet on the Ballon d’Or 2025
Best Betting Markets
- Outright Winner (Dembélé -138 / Yamal +100)
- Top 3 Finish (Salah +150, Raphinha +200)
- “Without Dembélé” Market (Yamal -110)
Where to Bet
- Mainstream Bookmakers: Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket (for live trading)
Betting Strategy
- Safe Pick: Dembélé -138 (low risk, high probability).
- Value Bet: Yamal +100 (if Spain wins Nations League).
- Long Shot: Salah +2500 (if voters prioritize Premier League form).
Final Prediction & Best Bets
- Most Likely Winner: Dembélé (58% implied odds).
- Upset Potential: Yamal if he shines in Nations League final.
- Dark Horse: Kvaratskhelia +4000 (if PSG dominates Club World Cup).
