The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 in Basel, Switzerland is shaping up to be one of the most competitive editions in history, with Sweden leading the betting markets ahead of the May 17 grand final. Following the first rehearsals, odds have shifted dramatically – here’s everything you need to know to bet smartly on this year’s contest.
Current Winner Odds (May 2025)
| Country | Artist | Song | Decimal Odds | American Odds | Implied Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | KAJ | Bara Bada Bastu | 2.37 | +137 | 42% |
| Austria | JJ | Wasted Love | 4.00 | +300 | 25% |
| France | Louane | Maman | 8.50 | +750 | 12% |
| Israel | Yuval Raphael | New Day Will Rise | 13.00 | +1200 | 8% |
| Netherlands | Claude | C’est La Vie | 15.00 | +1400 | 7% |
| Finland | Erika Vikman | Ich komme | 23.00 | +2200 | 4% |
| Belgium | Red Sebastian | Strobe Lights | 26.00 | +2500 | 4% |
| Czechia | Adonxs | Kiss Kiss Goodbye | 34.00 | +3300 | 3% |
Key Changes After Rehearsals
- Sweden (2.37) remains dominant but odds drifted slightly after staging reveals
- Austria (4.00) surged following JJ’s powerful vocal rehearsal
- France (8.50) dropped after Louane’s technical issues during camera blocking
- Israel (13.00) overtook Netherlands due to Yuval’s emotional performance
Top Contenders Analysis
1. Sweden – KAJ (2.37)
Why They Could Win:
- Returning favorites after 2023’s Loreen victory
- Catchy “epadunk” (electronic polka) song with sauna-themed staging
- Potential record 8th win for Sweden
Risk Factors:
- Novelty act fatigue among juries
- Strong competition from Austria’s jury-friendly entry
2. Austria – JJ (4.00)
Dark Horse Appeal:
- Austrian-Filipino countertenor with operatic pop song
- Stunning rehearsal visuals featuring floating piano
- Could replicate Conchita Wurst’s 2014 surprise win
3. France – Louane (8.50)
X-Factor:
- Ballad-to-banger structure perfect for Eurovision
- Star power (3M albums sold in France)
- Needs to fix camera blocking issues before semi-finals
How to Bet on Eurovision 2025
Best Betting Markets
- Outright Winner (Sweden 2.37 / Austria 4.00)
- Top 3 Finish (France 2.50 / Israel 4.00)
- Semi-Final Qualification (Estonia 1.02 to qualify)
- Televote vs Jury Split (e.g. “Austria to win jury vote”)
Where to Bet
- Mainstream Books: Bet365, William Hill, Unibet
- Eurovision Specialists: EurovisionWorld, ESCBet
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket (for live trading)
Betting Strategy
- Safe Pick: Sweden top 3 finish (1.50)
- Value Bet: Austria each-way at 4.00
- Long Shot: Finland televote winner (8.00)
Key Factors That Will Decide the Winner
1. Running Order
- Sweden drew 2nd half (advantage)
- Austria performs 12th (prime “memory slot”)
2. LGBTQ+ Vote
- Belgium (Red Sebastian) and Finland (Erika Vikman) could split queer support
3. Political Voting
- Ukraine (67.00) may still get sympathy votes
- Israel’s odds dropped despite strong rehearsal
Prediction & Best Bets
Most Likely Outcome:
Sweden wins with combined jury/televote support
Value Picks:
- Austria to top 3 at 2.10
- Finland televote top 5 at 3.50
Dark Horse:
Belgium to qualify at 1.66 (semi-final 1)
