The 2025 Dutch general election, scheduled for October 29, follows the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government after Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew over asylum policy disputes. With the political landscape fragmented and polls showing a tight race, betting markets are highly active.
This 600+ word guide covers:
✔ Latest odds & polling averages
✔ Top parties & their chances
✔ Key election factors
✔ Betting strategies & markets
Current Betting Odds & Polling Averages (June 2025)
| Party | Leader | Seat Projection | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PVV (Far-right) | Geert Wilders | 30–31 | +100 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| GL–PvdA (Left) | Frans Timmermans | 28–30 | +150 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| VVD (Center-right) | Dilan Yeşilgöz | 23–25 | +400 | 5.00 | 20.0% |
| NSC (Center-right) | Nicolien van Vroonhoven | 18–20 | +800 | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| D66 (Liberal) | Rob Jetten | 10–12 | +2500 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
(Odds via Polymarket & European bookmakers; seat projections from Ipsos/Peil.nl polls)
Key Takeaways:
- PVV (+100) remains the narrow favorite, but its lead has shrunk from 37 seats in 2023 to 30–31 due to coalition instability.
- GL–PvdA (+150) has surged under Timmermans, capitalizing on voter disillusionment with right-wing policies.
- VVD (+400) faces backlash for collaborating with Wilders but retains a strong base.
- NSC (+800), now led by van Vroonhoven, struggles without founder Pieter Omtzigt.
Top Contenders: Who Could Win?
1. PVV (Party for Freedom) – +100
Why They Could Win:
- Anti-immigration momentum: Wilders’ hardline stance resonates amid asylum policy debates.
- Disillusioned base: PVV voters feel betrayed by coalition compromises and may rally.
- Media dominance: Wilders’ provocative rhetoric drives engagement.
Weaknesses:
- Coalition instability: PVV’s withdrawal from government hurt its credibility.
- Isolation risk: Other parties may refuse to collaborate post-election.
2. GL–PvdA (Green-Left/Labour) – +150
Why They Could Win:
- Progressive unity: Merged party consolidates left-wing votes.
- Timmermans’ appeal: Former EU climate chief attracts centrists.
- Policy focus: Strong on climate, housing, and healthcare.
Weaknesses:
- Limited rural support: Trails in farming regions (e.g., BBB strongholds).
- Fragmented left: Competing with D66 and SP for votes.
3. VVD (People’s Party for Freedom) – +400
Why They Could Contend:
- Establishment backing: Traditional business and urban support.
- Yeşilgöz’s leadership: First female PM candidate could galvanize moderates.
Weaknesses:
- PVV collaboration fallout: Seen as enabling far-right policies.
- Policy stagnation: Failed to deliver on migration reforms.
Key Election Factors
1. Immigration Policy
- PVV’s 10-point asylum plan (e.g., family reunification bans) dominates debates.
- GL–PvdA opposes strict limits, favoring EU-wide solutions.
2. Coalition Math
- 76 seats needed for majority: Likely requiring 3–4 parties to govern.
- Wilders’ isolation: VVD and NSC may refuse to work with PVV again.
3. Voter Turnout
- 2023 turnout was 77.7%: High youth participation could boost GL–PvdA.
How to Bet on the Election
Best Betting Markets
- Outright Winner: PVV (+100) vs. GL–PvdA (+150)
- Seat Props:
- “PVV under 30.5 seats” (+120)
- “GL–PvdA over 28.5 seats” (-110)
- Coalition Builder:
- “VVD + NSC + BBB coalition” (+300)
Where to Bet
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket (PVV contracts at 50¢/$1).
- Sportsbooks: Bet365, Unibet (for live odds).
Betting Strategy
- Safe Pick: PVV (+100) – Still leads polls but high risk.
- Value Bet: GL–PvdA (+150) – Strong momentum.
- Long Shot: NSC (+800) – If centrists consolidate.
Prediction & Best Bets
- Most Likely Outcome: PVV wins most seats but fails to form government.
- Upset Scenario: GL–PvdA surpasses PVV with left-wing coalition.
- Dark Horse: VVD brokers centrist coalition without PVV.
