With Pope Francis’ passing on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church prepares for a historic conclave in early May. Betting markets are surging, with over $5.5 million wagered globally on the successor. Below, we break down the latest odds (in both decimal and American formats), key candidates, and strategic betting tips.
Current Situation: Timeline for the Conclave
- April 21: Pope Francis died at 88 after a cerebral stroke and heart failure.
- April 22–30: Nine-day mourning period (Novemdiales).
- May 1–3: Expected start of the conclave (≈120 cardinal-electors).
- Election: Requires a two-thirds majority (≈80 votes).
Next Pope Betting Odds (April 2025)
Odds from major bookmakers (William Hill, bet365) and prediction markets (Polymarket):
Top Contenders
| Candidate | Country | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | +150 | 2.50 | 40% |
| Luis Tagle | Philippines | +300 | 4.00 | 25% |
| Peter Turkson | Ghana | +600 | 7.00 | 14% |
| Matteo Zuppi | Italy | +700 | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Robert Sarah | Guinea | +800 | 9.00 | 11% |
Dark Horses
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy): +900 (10.00)
- Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo): +2000 (21.00)
- Peter Erdő (Hungary): +1000 (11.00)
How to Bet on the Next Pope
1. Betting Markets
- Outright Winner: Bet on the next pope (e.g., Parolin at +150 or 2.50).
- Continent of Origin:
- Europe: -100 (1.91)
- Asia: +140 (2.40)
- Africa: +550 (6.50)
- Papal Name:
- “Francis”: +250 (3.50)
- “John”: +500 (6.00)
- “Leo”: +600 (7.00)
2. Where to Bet
- International Bookmakers: William Hill, bet365 (offering decimal & American odds).
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket (crypto-based, $3M+ volume).
3. Betting Strategy
- Value Picks: Tagle (+300 / 4.00) and Turkson (+600 / 7.00) offer strong payout potential.
- Long Shots: Ambongo (+2000 / 21.00) for high-reward bets.
- Hedge Bets: Combine “Europe” (-100 / 1.91) with an outsider like Zuppi (+700 / 8.00).
Key Factors Influencing the Election
- Francis’ Legacy: 72% of voting cardinals were appointed by him, favoring reformers.
- Global South Shift: Africa/Asia represent growth (40% of Catholics), but Europe holds 50% of voting cardinals.
- Age Factor: Younger candidates (e.g., Tagle, 67) may be prioritized.
Final Betting Recommendations
- Safe Bet: Parolin (+150 / 2.50) for continuity.
- High-Value: Tagle (+300 / 4.00) for a progressive, global pivot.
- Wildcard: Turkson (+600 / 7.00) for historic African representation.
Odds are fluid—monitor Vatican news and betting market shifts until the conclave begins.
