Next President of South Korea Betting 2025: Odds, Top Contenders & How to Bet

With South Korea’s snap presidential election set for June 3, 2025, following the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol, political betting markets are buzzing with speculation. The race is heating up as major candidates emerge, and global bookmakers are offering odds on who will lead Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

In this comprehensive guide, we’ll cover:
✔ Latest betting odds (American & decimal)
✔ Top contenders & dark horses
✔ Key factors influencing the election
✔ How & where to bet

Current Betting Odds: Lee Jae-myung Leads

As of April 25, 2025, the latest odds from major bookmakers (Polymarket, Bet365, William Hill) show:

Next President of South Korea – Outright Winner

Key Takeaways:

• Lee Jae-myung (DP) is the strong favorite, with 66.7% implied probability of winning.
• Hong Joon-pyo (PPP) is the leading conservative challenger at +350 (22.2%), but the PPP remains divided.
• Han Dong-hoon, a former Yoon ally turned critic, is a wildcard at +600 (14.3%).
• Long shots include Oh Se-hoon (Seoul Mayor, +800) and Kim Moon-soo (Labor Minister, +1000).

Top Contenders: Who Could Win?

1. Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party – DP)

• Odds: -200 (1.50)
• Why? The opposition leader narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022 and has strong grassroots support.
• Strengths:
  • Leads in all major polls (34% support).
  • Championed Yoon’s impeachment, boosting his anti-establishment appeal.
• Weaknesses:
  • Faces multiple corruption trials, which could hurt his campaign.
  • Some moderates view him as too divisive.

2. Hong Joon-pyo (People Power Party – PPP)

• Odds: +350 (4.50)
• Why? The Daegu mayor is a conservative stalwart, rallying Yoon’s base.
• Strengths:
  • Strong in traditional conservative regions like Daegu.
  • Opposed Yoon’s impeachment, appealing to hardliners.
• Weaknesses:
  • Seen as too old-school (72 years old).
  • Struggles to attract young and urban voters.

3. Han Dong-hoon (Independent – ex-PPP)

• Odds: +600 (7.00)
• Why? The former justice minister broke with Yoon over martial law.
• Strengths:
  • Appeals to moderate conservatives disillusioned with Yoon.
  • Younger (51) and seen as reform-minded.
• Weaknesses:
  • Lacks a strong party machine.
  • Yoon loyalists view him as a traitor.

Dark Horse: Oh Se-hoon (PPP – Seoul Mayor)

• Odds: +800 (9.00)
• Why? His pro-nuclear stance and economic reforms attract right-wing voters.
• Wildcard Factor: If PPP fractures, he could emerge as a compromise candidate.

Key Factors Shaping the Election

1. Yoon’s Impeachment Fallout

• Yoon’s martial law declaration in December 2024 led to his removal, leaving the PPP in disarray.
• Conservatives must decide: Stick with Yoon’s legacy or rebrand?

2. Trump’s Trade War Impact

• 25% US tariffs on Korean goods have hurt the economy, making trade policy a key issue.
• Lee Jae-myung is framing himself as a negotiator, while PPP candidates struggle to respond.

3. Legal Risks for Lee

• If Lee is convicted before June, his candidacy could collapse, reshaping the race.

How to Bet on South Korea’s Next President

1. Best Betting Markets

• Outright Winner (Lee -200 / Hong +350)
• Popular Vote % (DP -150 to win over 45%)
• Will Lee Be Disqualified? (Yes +400 / No -250)

2. Where to Bet

• Polymarket (Leading prediction market, crypto-based)
• Bet365 (Best for live odds & props)
• William Hill (High limits for political betting)

3. Betting Strategy

• Safe Pick: Lee Jae-myung (-200) – Low risk, but low payout.
• Value Bet: Han Dong-hoon (+600) – If PPP splits, he could surge.
• Long Shot: Oh Se-hoon (+800) – If Seoul swings conservative.

Final Prediction: Lee Jae-myung Likely Wins

• Most Probable Outcome: Lee wins with 50-55% of the vote.
• Upset Scenario: If Lee is disqualified, Hong or Han could capitalize.