With the 2025 Canadian federal election just days away (April 28, 2025), betting markets are heating up as political analysts and punters speculate on who will become Canada’s next Prime Minister. The race has seen dramatic shifts, with Mark Carney’s Liberals surging ahead as heavy favorites, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives struggle to regain momentum.
In this deep dive, we’ll cover:
✔ Latest betting odds (American & decimal)
✔ Top contenders & dark horses
✔ Key factors influencing the election
✔ How & where to bet
Current Betting Odds: Liberals Dominate
As of April 25, 2025, the latest odds from major bookmakers (FanDuel, BetMGM, BetVictor) show:
Next Prime Minister of Canada – Outright Winner
| Candidate | Party | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | Liberal (LPC) | -500 | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Pierre Poilievre | Conservative (CPC) | +300 | 4.00 | 25% |
| Jagmeet Singh | NDP | +10,000 | 101.00 | 1% |
Key Takeaways:
- Carney’s Liberals have surged from +700 underdogs in January to -500 favorites—a historic swing.
- Poilievre’s Conservatives, once at -2000 (95% implied win probability), now sit at +300 (25%) due to Trump-related backlash.
- NDP & Bloc Québécois are non-factors, with Singh at +10,000 (1%).
Top Contenders: Who Could Win?
1. Mark Carney (Liberal Party – LPC)
- Odds: -500 (1.20)
- Why? Former Bank of Canada/England governor, Carney replaced Justin Trudeau in March 2025, revitalizing Liberal support.
- Strengths: Economic credibility, strong US-Canada trade stance, NDP collapse boosting Liberal votes.
- Weaknesses: Perceived as “establishment,” faces criticism for adopting Conservative policies (e.g., carbon tax repeal).
2. Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party – CPC)
- Odds: +300 (4.00)
- Why? Once the runaway favorite, Poilievre’s Trump-aligned rhetoric hurt his appeal amid US trade tensions.
- Strengths: Strong base in Alberta, anti-“woke” messaging resonating with right-wing voters.
- Weaknesses: Negative approval ratings (45%), seen as too divisive.
Dark Horse: Chrystia Freeland (Future Leadership?)
- While not running in 2025, Freeland has +500 odds (16.7%) to be Canada’s first female PM by 2032.
Key Factors Shaping the Election
1. Trump’s Trade War Backlash
- 25% US tariffs on Canadian goods sparked nationalist sentiment, hurting Poilievre’s pro-Trump image.
- Carney’s firm stance boosted Liberal appeal (41% trust him on US relations vs. 26% for Poilievre).
2. NDP Collapse Benefits Liberals
- The NDP, projected to win just 4 seats (down from 25 in 2021), is shedding left-wing voters to the Liberals.
3. Snap Election Timing
- Carney called an early election (April 28 vs. October 2025) to capitalize on momentum.
How to Bet on Canada’s Next PM
1. Best Betting Markets
- Outright Winner (Carney -500 / Poilievre +300)
- Popular Vote (Liberals -155 / Conservatives +115)
- Seat Projections (Liberals -160 to win 160-179 seats)
2. Where to Bet
- FanDuel Ontario (Best for live odds)
- BetMGM (Wide range of prop bets)
- Polymarket (Crypto-based prediction market)
3. Betting Strategy
- Safe Pick: Carney at -500 for low-risk returns.
- Value Bet: Conservatives +300 if polls tighten.
- Long Shot: NDP +10,000 (Only for high-risk punters).
Final Prediction: Liberals Favored, But Not Guaranteed
- Most Likely Outcome: Carney wins a majority (182+ seats).
- Upset Scenario: If voter turnout dips, Poilievre could force a minority government.
