The June 24 Democratic primary will determine the likely next mayor of New York City, with ranked-choice voting adding complexity to a volatile race. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo remains the frontrunner, but progressive challenger Zohran Mamdani has surged, narrowing the gap to single digits in recent polls.
Current Betting Odds & Polling Averages
| Candidate | Polling (1st Choice) | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cuomo | 35–37% | -250 | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 22–23% | +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Brad Lander | 9–11% | +2000 | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Adrienne Adams | 8–9% | +2500 | 26.00 | 3.8% |
Key Takeaways:
- Cuomo (-250) leads in first-choice votes and ranked-choice simulations (53–54% final-round support).
- Mamdani (+300) has risen 22 points since February, leveraging progressive endorsements and viral grassroots campaigns.
- Prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi) give Cuomo an 84% win probability, reflecting institutional confidence.
Top Contenders Analysis
1. Andrew Cuomo (1.40 / -250)
Strengths:
- Name recognition & experience: Former governor with infrastructure wins (Second Ave Subway, marriage equality).
- Key endorsements: 1199SEIU, Hotel Trades Council, and Black voters (74% support).
- Fundraising edge: $7.1M war chest + $10M super PAC backing.
Weaknesses:
- Scandals: Sexual harassment allegations and nursing home deaths during COVID.
- Progressive backlash: Ranked last by Working Families Party and AOC.
2. Zohran Mamdani (4.00 / +300)
Strengths:
- Progressive unity: Endorsed by DSA, AOC, and Working Families Party.
- Grassroots momentum: 29,000 volunteers and $8.3M raised (including small donors).
- Youth appeal: Leads voters under 50 (61%) and college-educated whites (57%).
Weaknesses:
- Pro-Israel opposition: Criticized for Palestinian rights stance (20% Jewish support vs. Cuomo’s 31%).
- Limited citywide appeal: Trails in outer boroughs (e.g., Staten Island: 48% Cuomo).
Dark Horse: Brad Lander (21.00 / +2000)
- Comptroller credentials: Could consolidate anti-Cuomo moderates in later RCV rounds.
- Progressive-lite: Supports congestion pricing but avoids far-left labels.
Key Factors Influencing the Race
- Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV):
- Cuomo wins in 5th round (53–54%) but Mamdani gains from 2nd-choice votes.
- 46% of voters plan to rank only one candidate, boosting Cuomo’s first-choice lead.
- Debate Performance:
- Mamdani outperformed Cuomo in June 4 debate, highlighting billionaire donor ties.
- November Wildcards:
- Cuomo and incumbent Eric Adams (independent) may split anti-progressive votes in the general election.
How to Bet on the Nomination
Best Markets
- Outright Winner: Cuomo (-250) vs. Mamdani (+300).
- RCV Prop Bets:
- “Cuomo to win in Round 5” (+120).
- “Mamdani to reach final round” (+150).
Where to Bet
- Prediction Markets: Kalshi (Cuomo at 84¢ per $1 contract).
- Sportsbooks: Polymarket, Bet365 (for live odds).
Betting Strategy
- Safe Pick: Cuomo (-250) for low-risk returns.
- Value Bet: Mamdani (+300) if progressive turnout surges.
- Long Shot: Lander (+2000) as RCV spoiler.
Final Prediction
- Most Likely: Cuomo wins nomination (71% implied odds) via RCV consolidation.
- Upset Scenario: Mamdani overtakes if Cuomo’s scandals dominate final weeks.
