The 2025 Polish presidential election is shaping up to be one of Europe’s most consequential political battles, with betting markets reflecting the high-stakes nature of this contest. As Poland prepares to vote on May 11 (first round) and potentially May 25 (runoff), the race pits establishment forces against rising populist challengers in what could redefine the country’s geopolitical direction.
Current Betting Odds & Top Contenders (April 2025)
Presidential Election Outright Winner Odds
| Candidate | Party/Alignment | American Odds | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Tusk | Civic Platform (PO) | +150 | 2.50 | 40% |
| Andrzej Duda | Law & Justice (PiS) | +250 | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Szymon Hołownia | Poland 2050 | +400 | 5.00 | 20% |
| Robert Biedroń | New Left | +800 | 9.00 | 11.1% |
| Krzysztof Bosak | Confederation | +1200 | 13.00 | 7.7% |
Race Analysis
- Donald Tusk (+150) – The former Prime Minister and current EU Council President has returned to Polish politics with strong pro-European credentials. His message of “returning Poland to Europe” resonates with urban voters but faces skepticism in rural areas.
- Andrzej Duda (+250) – The incumbent president seeks re-election despite term limit controversies. Maintains strong PiS base support but hurt by economic slowdown and judicial reform disputes with Brussels.
- Szymon Hołownia (+400) – The centrist wildcard and former TV personality has surged in youth polls. His anti-establishment rhetoric appeals to voters tired of PO-PiS polarization.
Key Factors Influencing the Election
1. EU Relations at Stake
- Poland’s €160 billion COVID recovery funds remain frozen
- Rule of law conditionality still unresolved
- 68% of Poles want improved EU relations (CBOS poll)
2. Economic Headwinds
- Inflation stubborn at 7.2% (down from peak but still high)
- Złoty volatility affecting purchasing power
- Energy prices key voter concern
3. Security & Defense
- Poland now spends 4.2% of GDP on defense (NATO’s highest)
- Border security with Belarus remains hot-button issue
- 83% support maintaining strong Ukraine aid (Pew Research)
Betting Markets & Strategies
Where to Bet
- International Bookmakers: Bet365, William Hill, Unibet
- Polish Sportsbooks: STS, Totolotek
- Prediction Markets: Polymarket, ZKasino
Recommended Bets
- Value Pick: Hołownia (+400) – Best positioned to benefit from anti-establishment wave
- Strategic Hedge: Tusk-Duda runoff (+110 either candidate)
- Prop Bet: Over 55% turnout (-130)
Betting Tips
- Watch Warsaw suburbs – bellwether regions
- Monitor Catholic Church endorsements
- Track youth poll movement (18-29 demographic)
Election Timeline & What to Watch
Key Dates
- April 28: Final candidate certification
- May 1: Official campaign begins
- May 11: First round voting
- May 12-24: Potential runoff campaign
- May 25: Runoff election (if needed)
Decisive Factors
- Senior Vote – PiS’s strongest demographic (60+)
- Diaspora Impact – UK-based Poles could swing close race
- Last-Week Scandals – Common in Polish elections
Conclusion & Prediction
This election represents a fundamental choice between Poland’s European future and sovereign conservatism. While Tusk enters as favorite, Duda’s machine politics and Hołownia’s disruption potential make this highly unpredictable. Our projection:
Most Likely Scenario: Tusk defeats Duda 51-49% in runoff
Upset Potential: Hołownia makes runoff, reshaping political landscape
For bettors, the sweet spot may lie in runoff markets rather than first-round outrights. As always in Polish politics, expect the unexpected in the final stretch.
